The growth outlook for Latin America increases to 2% for this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised by one-tenth on Tuesday the economic growth outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024, to 2%, which is 0.3 points below the 2023 figure due to the situation in Argentina.
Furthermore, it indicates that the economy of the Dominican Republic will grow by 5.4% in 2024 (it had projected 5.2% in October 2023). This growth is reduced to 5.0% both in 2025 and in 2029.
Its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report updates the one released in January and barely changes the data from then. The January document was the first with data from Argentina since the arrival of Javier Milei to power.
However, compared to October 2023, the forecast for 2024 is three tenths lower, while that for 2025, at 2.5%, improves by one tenth.
In 2023, the Latin America and the Caribbean region grew by 2.3%, which means that these new estimates for 2024 foresee a slight deceleration of the economy before regaining momentum.
In January, the slowdown in growth pace in 2024 was attributed to the decline in GDP in Argentina, which then stood at -2.8%, although a rise of 5% was expected there for 2025. The figures for this April do not modify the forecasts from back then.
Estimates for the two main nations in the region, Brazil and Mexico, offer divergent paths.
Brazil is expected to see GDP rise by 2.2% this year and by 2.1% in 2025, representing increases of five and two tenths respectively compared to projections made last January, while Mexico is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2024 and by 1.4% next year, implying a downward revision of three tenths in the former case and one tenth in the latter.
The growth forecast now provided by the organization for both countries does not surpass the figures of 2023, a year in which the Brazilian economy rose by 2.9% and the Mexican economy by 3.2%.
The IMF specified that the moderation in Brazil is due to fiscal consolidation, the effects of still restrictive monetary policy, and a lesser contribution from agriculture, while in Mexico it is justified by weaker-than-expected results for late 2023 and early 2024, including a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Except for Argentina, no South American country is projected to experience negative growth this year. Venezuela will experience the highest forecasted increase, at 4%, which remains unchanged from 2023, followed by Paraguay (3.8%), Uruguay (3.7%), Peru (2.5%), Chile (2%), Bolivia (1.6%), Colombia (1.1%), and Ecuador (0.1%).
Only Uruguay, Peru, and Colombia are improving their 2023 data. For 2025, the IMF expects GDP to reach 3.8% again in Paraguay, 3% in Venezuela, 2.9% in Uruguay, 2.7% in Peru, 2.5% in Colombia and Chile, 2.2% in Bolivia, and 0.8% in Ecuador.
The organization led by Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva, which released these figures during the spring meetings held by the IMF and the World Bank this week in Washington, projects that South America’s GDP will increase from 1.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025.
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