- This aligns with the forecasts of international organizations.
- The average exchange rate of the dollar also rises to RD$63.75.
The Ministry of Economy, Planning, and Development (Mepyd) has revised its growth estimates for the Dominican economy in 2025 down to 4.5%, 0.25 percentage points lower than the projections made seven months ago when it predicted a 4.75% expansion in August 2024.
The moderation in its forecast is due to a slowdown in domestic demand, although the institution expects the situation to “improve in the coming months,” amid an inflation rate averaging 3.80% throughout the year.
This scenario is different from last year when the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.0% despite local uncertainty due to the electoral period and a global context described as “adverse.”
The projection now aligns more with those forecasted by international organizations such as:
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which updated its 5.0% GDP forecast in November 2024 to 4.5% in March of this year.
- The World Bank, which predicted a 4.7% growth in January of this year.
- The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which estimated a 4.6% growth last December.
For 2026, Mepyd envisions stronger domestic demand, which would allow for an expected GDP growth of 5.1%.
Slowdown:
The analysis, included in its latest report “Macroeconomic Overview,” explains that the Dominican economy started the year with a modest growth of 2.2% in January due to a 7.3% contraction in construction sector activities and a 1.8% slowdown in mining and quarrying activities during that period.
Dollar Increase:
The institution predicts that the exchange rate will average RD$63.75 per dollar during 2025—0.64 pesos higher than previously forecast in August—for a 7.0% depreciation compared to the RD$59.58 rate maintained in 2024.
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